Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Talk about the forum & website, off-topic chatter, etc.
steven
Admin
Admin
Posts: 4235
Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:32 pm
x 3710
x 581

Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Post by steven »

I wrote a post with some predictions for travel in Central Asia in 2022. These are our guesses and gambles.

Now we are curious to hear: what do you think will happen?
0 x
If you like Caravanistan: we have opened a tip jar! We love you back! :D

sebhoff
Posts: 270
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2017 6:14 pm
x 7
x 116

Re: Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Post by sebhoff »

OK, here goes...:

In the first two months of the year, Omicron is continuing to rage through much of the world, including Central Asia. Early signs that Omicron causes less severe illness than earlier variants are fully confirmed, marking the first step of a shift from a pandemic to an endemic COVID-19 situation. It's not going to go all the way in 2022, through, and there will be some hiccups - but it's going in the right direction. This is good news for tourism in Central Asia.

After the end of Putin's successful posturing at the Ukraine border, giving him at least some of the concessions he's hoping for from the West, Russia and the EU will finally recognise each other's vaccine passports. This will make it easier for Europeans to travel to Russia - and beyond.

Kazakhstan will reinstate the visa-free regime, but not until the second half of the year.

Cross-border travel will become even more doable than now. Also, some of the international train connections are going to resume their services. These include Russia - Kazakhstan and Kazakhstan - Uzbekistan, making it again possible to travel all the way by train from Europe to places like Almaty or Tashkent. Travel onward to China will remain off limits, though.

Later in the year, Turkmenistan is going to allow some tourists into the country, but - with a handful of exceptions - transit visas will not be issued to overlanders (although they may be officially available).

Not sure what to predict for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. ;-)

Many thanks to Steven and Saule for keeping Caravanistan alive! It's been a wonderful source of diversion for me for the last two years - and I even finally made it to Central Asia in 2021 (a few hours in Kyrgyzstan and 3 weeks in Uzbekistan)!
All the best for 2022 - and happy travels!!
Sebastian
1 x

mazeno
Driving expert
Driving expert
Posts: 329
Joined: Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:04 pm
x 125

Re: Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Post by mazeno »

all those moments
会被时间遗失
как слезы под дождем
0 x
rgds -
mazeno

Nikopol
Posts: 51
Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2016 5:23 pm
x 22
x 20

Re: Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Post by Nikopol »

Looks like lot depends on omicron. If Europe will replicate South African numbers, ie strain lethality dropping to levels of influenza, it will be great news for tourism sector. Seems that now everyone is doing wait-and-see approach and data from England or Denmark look promising.

Kremlin got pressured by mayors of Moscow and Petersburg to re-open for travel after cities lost billions of RUB in tourism revenue and are desperate to get at least some back before hotels start to bancrupt all over the places. Hopefully sector could extend same pressure in Kazakhstan as well and overland travel could re-open, albeit with PCR test requirements.

Taliban gov seems to be in massive crisis with financial channels cut and famine in Astan is real possibility. Im worried that could lead to another round of civil war and in Badakhshan province there are active militants in its ranks who originate from GBAO. If Kandahar leadership keeps control over them it should be fine as it was last 6 months, but thats far from given.

PRC wont be able to contain outbreaks and eventually omicron variant will spread, ending their 0COVID policies that were hallmark of Party approach to pandemic. It will take a while to reckon with fact they cant just sit it out, but I seriously doubt borders will re-open or tourist visas will be re-issued unless large positivy rate is followed by little casualties given that Sinopharm vaccine dont seem very effective and PRC is last remaining "virgin" population that didnt come in touch with virus (which is all sorts of ironic). For eveyones sake I hope that that scenario will happen.

Russia is waiting for EU to recognize Sputnik, which in turn is waiting for EMA, but also especially WHO. This should be solved within few months after the mess in Omsk been solved (reportedly).

All in all, I think things will take very positive turn by Nowruz when massive data from omicron will be widely avaliable and this scare will diminish, with hospitality sector extending lobby effort to bring much needed to cash to its industry in that biggest season and beyond.
1 x

AreWeThereYet?
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:29 pm
x 27
x 125

Re: Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Post by AreWeThereYet? »

I, myself, have decided not to make any predictions but to expect the worst (so that I'm positively surprised when it's not happening).

I think overlanding will still be hard and countries will still be making up new things on very short notice. I don't think the PRC will open up anything in 2022 - they've just locked down Xi'an, including a total ban on getting out of home, over a few cases - and I'm personally with Saule on Kazakhstan not allowing visa-free access.

Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will be different; Tajikistan... who knows. The Panj is not much of a river to cross and there's plenty of whackos on either side.

But, on another side... This May I'm hoping to go to Karakol.
1 x
www.awtytravels.com
Stories from the road.

Hound_Dog
Posts: 55
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:56 am
x 16

Re: Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Post by Hound_Dog »

Due to suffering a severe case of confirmation bias I think the Stans will be open this season, with the exception of Turkmenistan which is 50/50 at best. It wont be without challenges, but I think it will be possible. Fingers crossed.
0 x

steven
Admin
Admin
Posts: 4235
Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:32 pm
x 3710
x 581

Re: Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Post by steven »

It seems like the first prediction has already fallen for Saule - the KZ consul of Netherlands said that the visa-free regime for Kazakhstan has been reinstated (in an expat Telegram group). Waiting for official confirmation.
1 x
If you like Caravanistan: we have opened a tip jar! We love you back! :D

nemesis464
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:26 am
x 5

Re: Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Post by nemesis464 »

China is still going to be a no-no. It make overland travel from Central Asia to SE Asia virtually impossible sadly.

I don't think Tajikistan will have much trouble with the Taliban at all. They have Russia's support on that one, and need the in GBAO.

The biggest issue for me overlanding at the moment is trying to acquire PCR tests on the road. Especially as a cyclist, the logistics of sourcing a PCR, and then getting to an international border within 72 hours sounds like a nightmare.

No idea what'll happen with the Tezhen border between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in Karakalpakstan when that opens- will it even be possible to get a PCR test in Aktau and still get to the border in the time window (assuming they still keep this access requirement)

-----------------------------------------

Was originally hoping I could do my dream cycle of London-Singapore this year, but a mandatory flight between Kyrgyzstan-Pakistan, Myanmar safety concerns, and whether SE Asia will open their land borders is putting it all in doubt.

Might have to do plan B and cycle the PanAmerican Highway instead- at least they're a lot more leninent with entry/border restrictions!
1 x

steven
Admin
Admin
Posts: 4235
Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:32 pm
x 3710
x 581

Re: Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Post by steven »

Let's keep it on-topic.

@Mazeno: we love your in-depth knowledge of Central Asia, and as travelers, we cherish the differences (cultural, political, religious) that make this world so interesting, so I don't want to censor your opinion, but let's leave politics out of it. It's a travel forum.

Let's keep up the good vibes, there is enough negativity in the world as it is. This should remain a positive place.
4 x
If you like Caravanistan: we have opened a tip jar! We love you back! :D

rredan
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:36 am
x 7
x 2

Re: Predictions Silk Road Travel in 2022

Post by rredan »

steven wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:55 am
It seems like the first prediction has already fallen (...) Waiting for official confirmation.
There already is such info, for Polish citizens, from Embassy of of Kazakhstan in Poland:
„Please be informed that from January 1, 2022, a visa-free regime for up to 30 days has been renewed for Polish citizens.” - https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/mf ... 90?lang=en
I suspect that similar messages are or will be soon published on the websites of other Kazakh embassies in the EU countries.
1 x

Post Reply
  • Similar Topics
    Replies
    Views
    Last post