Another set of border clashes between TJ & KG

[AreWeThereYet?]

... only this time is a lot heavier. 30+ dead in Kyrgyzstan, 10 or so in Tajikistan according to some local media (Rahmon is keeping a lid on it).

Al Jazeera: Kyrgyzstan says 31 killed in clashes at Tajikistan border
https://aje.io/j8le9

[steven]

Tragic. In the wake ofrising nationalism and Covid poverty, with ever-mounting population pressure and resource scarcity, we can expect more, sadly.

Here are some more links:

https://eurasianet.org/kyrgyzstan-tajik ... f-fighting
https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-taji ... 37942.html

Bruce Pannier is very good here on the prospects for peace (not anytime soon):

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/insid ... -scale-war

[Christian77]

As this is a travel website, I'll offer my thoughts from the (selfish) perspective of a traveler. There have been many smaller skirmishes and killings in the past in this border zone (broadly defined as western Batken), but the main border crossing open to foreigners has consistently stayed open. Why? Because some powerful people on both sides are making money on this crossing through cross-border trade, plus skimming customs & duties and "avoiding customs & duties." It's not huge, as this is a low population area, but those making money can make their voice heard in their respective governments. They want the border to remain open. Money > national patriotism.

Of course, if it gets bad enough then these considerations get overridden by the top levels of government and the border gets shut. Collateral damage could include the Pamir Highway crossing. This would only happen if things escalate further. A middle option would be for the border crossing in Batken to revert to the status of the Tajik-Kyrgyz border crossing at the end of the 'Rasht' valley: open to Tajik and Kyrgyz citizens. But excluding everyone else. They would preserve their revenue, but cut out annoying tourists, foreign journalists and human rights researchers...

As for predictions, the past two decades in Central Asia reveal that neither locals nor foreign analysts can accurately say what will happen.

[StephParis]

Has the Pamir Crossing already been closed in the past ?

[bwv812]

Has the Pamir Crossing already been closed in the past ?

It was closed in the summer of 2012 during the Pamir conflict.

However, when this closed they opened the border crossing at Karamyk, which is normally closed to tourists. So you could go from Sary Tash to Dushanbe instead of from Sary Tash to Murghab.

[mazeno]

in last years ph was blocked for some days in
2009 clashes (may/jul, clashes had place mainly in rasht and tavildara as mulla abdullo escaped from afg to tjk)
2012 clashes (jul-sept)
2014 clashes (shortly blocked in may)
2016 (shortly blocked in oct) tajik-china military exercises
2018 (3 days in sept) rahmon's visit
2019 (1 day in may) rahmon's visit

karamik is closed not only for tourists
it is closed for all excluding tajiks and kyrgyzs

in 2012 karamik was opened by tajikistan (once, exceptionally! as clashes were taken long weeks - nazarov was killed on july 21st, i was in khalai khumb at the turn of aug/sept - children started the school - and it was still blocked)
but on the kyrgyz side it was a roulette then
in 2012 i crossed karamik in both directions (kgz->tjk and after a week or so tjk->kgz) with no problem
(before return to kzg i tried to drive ph from dushanbe via tavildara to khorog then to osh, but only got to kalai khumb, in spite the road behind dasht i-sher was blocked, i detoured the dasht i-sher post across the mountains, the khoburabot post passed by as soldiers were busy with a truck, at the khost post they were so surprised that they let me go down to khalai khumb, and the last point was the kevron post - i was turned back and drove to dushanbe via kulob)
but
some people were stuck for some days on karamik
as kyrgyz didn't allowed them into kyrgyzstan (expecting high bakshish, i think) and they didn't have double tajik visa to return
among them there was a couple from poland stuck for almost a week on the noman's land
they spent several hundred euros to get out from there and some embassies were involved (as poland have no embassy in kgz)

but it could depend on every individual case and 'attitude' of the crossing person to the people in uniform
knowledge of russian helps a lot of course
being a citizen of former 'demoludy' (ex-communistic, except germany) increases the chances a lot
but it seems to be not applicable to the young generation (not speakign russian and not knowing the post/communism reality)
if you're laid back and don't show them you're in a state of nerves
they could make no problem
if you're vexed
better take a lot of deep breath and start to count sheep
and it concerns all the situations, not only at the border

of course i don't count several days during every winter when ph is usually blocked by the snow
or during spring when it could be blocked by the 'syl' (mud avalanches and flood)
especially on the part kulob-ishkashim