4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

All about Tajikistan. Expert: Pamirski
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Re: 4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

Postby bwv812 » Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:28 pm

Mazeno, the logic was that a terrorist attack can happen anywhere, so everywhere is equally risky. I just said that car accidents can happen anywhere, but we tend not to think of all places as equally risky when it comes to driving. I'm sorry if that was confusing.
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Re: 4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

Postby mazeno » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:33 am

just don't be too much politically correct.
the topic is about 4 killed in tjk, not about car accidents.
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Re: 4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

Postby panse » Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:42 pm

Heard about police escort from Dushanbe to Khalaikumb.
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Re: 4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

Postby mazeno » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:04 am

which way?
via kulab or tavildara?
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Re: 4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

Postby panse » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:58 pm

via Kulab
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Re: 4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

Postby steven » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:15 am

I'll add this comment from our Facebook page from Christian Bleuer, who did his Ph. D on Tajikistan:

I won't tag the imbecile who is commenting here (the one who looks like the sort of European who fantasises about rounding up Muslims into camps). But I will address his main point: "Anyone who assures that „this was a singular event“ and that „it is still safe“ is either blind or stupid." This man is in himself blind and stupid. He has stumbled upon a region he knows nothing about.

The history of terrorist attacks in Central Asia are in fact 'singular.' In a region of 70 million people we have seen only rare, isolated terrorist attacks. Examples: The IMU cross-border attack/kidnapping 20 years ago in southern Kyrgyzstan. The Tashkent bombings 15ish years ago. The western Kazakhstan attack a few years ago. The Bishkek car bombing of the Chinese embassy a couple of years back. What terrorism in Central Asia has in common over the last 20 years is both a low bodycount AND the total inability of attackers to repeat their actions in any sustainable manner.

These attacks are, from a tactical and strategic viewpoint, complete failures. They do their attack in a small isolated group, and then the security services roll over them as they do not have the funding, the external support, or a local base of support. The only argument that could be made is that this is a new sort of attack that, like the attacks in Europe, inspires others to do their own so-called "Lone Wolf" attacks.

But will terrorist attacks become common in Central Asia? No. Only if, for unrelated reasons, one of the states here collapses. So ignore random internet commenters that are bitter about other people who travel the world while they sit at home barking on the internet about things they are completely ignorant of. If you are really interested in what is happening, search the news for commentary and work by Edward Lemon and Noah Tucker, researchers who focus on radicalisation in Central Asia.
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Re: 4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

Postby mazeno » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:44 am

> will terrorist attacks become common in Central Asia? No.
wow.
what a determination.
any specifics?
or just "no" because "no"?

i wouldn't be so sure of being easy.
this is asia, things may change quickly. especially if the politics come in. and mr putin is still missing soviet union times.
"where the soviet flag was established once there is no turning back" (soso-koba).
and it is only one of many reasons. expansions of the arabs is another one. chineese expansions is another one.
central asia is on the crossing of four civilizations - european, turkish, arab and chineese.
terrorism is not a goal in itself, it is a tool, a pretext.
yes, can be singular.
but also can be a prelude.

in early 90's chechnya was a small republic somewhere in russia, unknown to many...
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Re: 4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

Postby steven » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:44 am

Here is another professional analysis: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/ ... an-matters
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Re: 4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

Postby Lovetheworld » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:00 pm

mazeno wrote:> will terrorist attacks become common in Central Asia? No.
wow.
what a determination.
any specifics?
or just "no" because "no"?

i wouldn't be so sure of being easy.
this is asia, things may change quickly. especially if the politics come in. and mr putin is still missing soviet union times.
"where the soviet flag was established once there is no turning back" (soso-koba).
and it is only one of many reasons. expansions of the arabs is another one. chineese expansions is another one.
central asia is on the crossing of four civilizations - european, turkish, arab and chineese.
terrorism is not a goal in itself, it is a tool, a pretext.
yes, can be singular.
but also can be a prelude.

in early 90's chechnya was a small republic somewhere in russia, unknown to many...


You are dragging in all kinds of subjects of which at least half are unrelated. Or at least for now.

Anyway, in the mean time it looks like there is more consistancy in atracks in the western world than in Central Asia. So he makes a good point.

The only argument left is that they had their target on tourists, which increases the chance for us significantly.
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Re: 4 cyclists killed in Tajikistan

Postby mazeno » Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:15 pm

> Here is another professional analysis
much more realistic than previous.

---

> You are dragging in all kinds of subjects
maybe because it is a forum (discussion), not a notice board ("i'm looking for a travelmate bla-bla").

> it looks like there is more consistancy in atracks in the western world than in Central Asia
so let's give it the green light in asia, too.
let's speak it was only an accident.
isolated accident.
let's speak it was a car (a thing itself) that killed these people, not definite terrorists.
let's speak about tolerance and let's pretend that there is no problem of terrorism.
and - last but not least - let's defence with crayons vs bullets and knives.
as it started in western world some years ago.

the problem is not that it is "an isolated", "grassroot", "secular tajikistan" or so.
the problem is that public opinion tolerate the fact of terrorism.
people just get used to terrorists.
and are doing nothing about it.
just drawing with crayons on their streets and telling tearful stories about tolerance.
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