Another year, another round of Silk Road travel predictions. Last year, I got 3 out of 3:
- Turkmenistan did not open up
- The Pamir Highway remained difficult to access
- The Silk Road stayed quiet, with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan bucking the trend
So what do I think about 2023? Well, since several people asked, I jotted down my opinion. But let me just stress before anything else: these are just guesses. I have no secret insider information.
No improvements in Pamir, Turkmenistan access
At least since 2010 when I started following the Silk Road, the leadership of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have done everything in their power to make life more shit for the inhabitants of their countries. They have been very successful in that, and I cannot see anything positive happening in these countries in the foreseeable future.
In 2022, Tajikistan’s elite ramped up the low-intensity border conflicts with Kyrgyzstan to the level of suspected military invasion, and further ramped up the repression in the Pamirs to the level of chokehold. The border conflict together with Pamiri repression will keep access to the Pamir Highway limited.
Tourists visiting Turkmenistan would offer a slight improvement to the life of some ordinary Turkmens. For that reason alone, I think the ruling family will not allow it in 2023, as Serdar and Gurbanguly sadistically enjoy seeing the living conditions of the population spiral down further.
Influence of Ukraine war fades
In September, hundreds of thousands of Russians fled into Central Asia to escape conscription, driving up prices. These refugees have mostly moved on by now to Thailand, Sri Lanka, Argentina or other Russia-friendly destinations that are known as more amenable digital nomad destinations.
Of course, the influence of the war will continue to reverberate as Russia loses more influence in Central Asia and the region rebalances towards different trade, cultural and security partners. But the influence on your trip is negligible, except for when it comes to flights.
Coming from the West, flights to Central Asia used to be available with stopovers in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Moscow, Minsk and Kyiv. All gone. A few direct flights depart from Frankfurt, Amsterdam and the US, but the vast majority of travellers will see no options other than a stopover in Istanbul, although Qatar and Dubai are now also emerging as alternative hubs between Central Asia and the West.
Tourists return
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan dropped restrictions in 2022 for travelers and that led to a minor rebound. As certainty grows and people have had more time to plan, a lot of Central Asia itineraries are being dusted off.
More people will be traveling the Silk Road again in 2023. Not as many as in 2019 yet, though, and I don’t see that peak being reached anytime in the near or even the mid-term future.
The lack of access to Pamir and Turkmenistan, fear over border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the revolutionary mood and heavy-handed repression in Iran, China’s confusing Covid exit, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the mounting toll of climate change and the conflict in Karabakh will all continue to limit options and depress visitor numbers.
Overlanding with your own wheels remains challenging with Russia and Ukraine mostly off-limits, Iran uncertain and Pakistan in continuous crisis mode. But China is opening up and travel in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan has arguably never been easier.
So, I do expect higher numbers this year. Chinese visitors will return. Hikers and backpackers will return. Older travelers previously anxious about Covid will return. If you are thinking of renting a car or taking a more complex tour with a good tour guide, or you have your heart set on a specific bnb in Bukhara, I recommend you book as soon as your plans solidify.
Afghanistan opens up
I was asked if Afghanistan will open up in 2023. For this, I defer to James Willcox, owner of Untamed Borders, premier tour operator in Afghanistan since 2008. They have restarted trips in autumn 2022 for the first time since the Taliban takeover and are planning a ski trip to Bamiyan for 2023. So yes, the Taliban is letting people in.
Is it safer now? No, of course not. What is true is that the Taliban no longer seems to want to murder foreigners. Instead, it’s ISIS that is most likely to attempt to kill you in Afghanistan.